A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
